Category Archives: Decision Making

Do You Feel Lucky?

There are several dimensions of luck, and the diametrical differences can perhaps be best contrasted by the timeless words uttered by a fictitious police inspector and a 1st century (and very real) Roman philosopher. Oddly enough, both messages apply to … Continue reading

Posted in Accidents, Decision Making | 2 Comments

Avalanche Crashes With Religion and Physics

Let me share with you the curious, entertaining and embarrassing circumstances surrounding an avalanche when religion got schooled in a simple law of physics: what goes down must come up.

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What Can Sherlock Holmes Teach Us About Avalanches – Part 3 of 3

Part 3. Thinking Backwards About Avalanches. So, how can we think backwards about avalanches? Before answering that question let’s look briefly at how thinking forward — cause to effect — can get us into trouble when dealing with decisions of … Continue reading

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Can Sherlock Holmes Teach Us About Avalanches? – Part 2

Part 2. How Sherlock Holmes Thinks Backwards. An example of Holmes thinking backwards can be read in A Study of Scarlet where Holmes describes the history of a watch recently acquired by Watson. After looking at the watch for just … Continue reading

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Can Sherlock Holmes Teach Us About Avalanches? Part 1

When it comes to the science of avalanches, this fictional detective from the late 1800s probably cannot tell us anything about avalanches. However, when it comes to making decisions about playing and working safely in avalanche terrain, the master detective … Continue reading

Posted in Decision Making | 3 Comments